On September 17, the Global Kurdish Initiative for Peace (GKIP) at the School of International Service at American University in Washington, D.C., hosted a panel featuring energy experts and researchers. The discussion underscored the growing geopolitical and economic significance of the Kurdistan Region’s natural gas reserves, positioning them as a pivotal element in Iraq’s energy landscape and a vital opportunity for fostering international collaboration.

Yerevan Saeed, the Barzani Scholar and Director of GKIP, opened the discussion by providing an overview of the geopolitics surrounding natural gas in the Middle East. He described Kurdistan as a “critical and complex part of the region,” noting that Iraq has an estimated 127 trillion cubic meters of gas, with the Kurdistan Region accounting for approximately 20%. “This concentration underscores the strategic importance of the Kurdistan Region in terms of natural resources for Iraq’s energy security,” Saeed explained, highlighting its potential as a gas exporter to the regional market.

Saeed also emphasized the challenges associated with this potential. “Natural gas is no longer merely a commodity; it has become one of the most contested arenas in both regional and global power dynamics.” He urged the United States and Western nations to assist Iraq and the Kurdistan Region in achieving energy security, setting the stage for a deeper exploration of these interconnected issues with leading experts.

According to the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) Ministry of Natural Resources, the Kurdistan Region could hold as much as 200 trillion cubic feet of natural gas reserves, around 3% of the world’s total reserves. This positions Kurdistan for a prominent role in regional and global gas markets.

Victoria Taylor, Director of the Iraq Initiative at the Atlantic Council, highlighted that the U.S. views the Kurdistan Region’s natural gas resources as a crucial opportunity for American involvement. She also emphasized a bipartisan U.S. approach to reducing Iraq’s reliance on Iranian energy sources. “There is broad bipartisan consensus that the U.S. government should focus on decreasing Iraq’s dependence on Iranian energy,” she stated. Taylor noted that the emphasis on U.S. investment has intensified, particularly during the Trump administration.

Additionally, Taylor pointed to the significant recent visit of KRG Prime Minister Masrour Barzani to Washington, which led to the signing of two multi-billion-dollar deals with U.S. energy firms HKN Energy and WesternZagros. The agreements, estimated to be worth a combined $110 billion over their lifetimes, involve HKN Energy operating the Miran Block, valued at approximately $40 billion, and WesternZagros managing the Topkhana-Kurdamir gas field, projected to generate around $70 billion.

Read More: KRG’s Multi-Billion-Dollar Energy Deals in the U.S.: Everything You Need to Know

“It’s quite unfortunate that Iraq, despite being rich in natural resources, still relies on imports and lacks reliable 24/7 electricity,” said Taylor, who previously served as the Deputy Assistant Secretary of State at the State Department during the Biden administration. She stressed the need for substantial U.S. investment to develop the energy sector and promote greater energy independence.

In contrast to the rest of Iraq, the Kurdistan Region has made notable progress in providing consistent electricity to its citizens. The KRG’s Runaki project has provided 24-hour electricity access to over 4 million citizens and 115,000 businesses, with Halabja becoming the first governorate in the Kurdistan Region to achieve this milestone.

Read More: Halabja First Province in Iraq and Kurdistan With 24/7 Electricity

Noam Raydan, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, discussed the challenges posed by Iran’s influence within Iraq’s energy sector. “Since 2017, Iraq has been importing gas from Iran, but those volumes have been highly unreliable,” she stated. Raydan shared her experiences living in Baghdad, emphasizing the reliance on private generators during harsh winters. “I remember we had to depend heavily on private generators because there was no electricity from the government. It gets really cold in winter, and if you touch the water, it’s freezing. So, you can imagine how difficult it is when Iran reduces gas supplies to Iraq during that period,” she recalled.

Raydan stressed that any efforts to help Iraq reduce its dependence on Iran must involve a nuanced understanding of Iraqi politics and culture. “This will require not just investment; it’s essential to comprehend Iraqi politics itself,” she remarked, highlighting the complexities involved in moving away from Iranian influence.

She also mentioned the multiple attacks on the Kurdistan Region’s oil and gas fields in the past two years by militant groups in Iraq. These incidents affect the pace of expansion and create long-term challenges for development plans, but they cannot fully halt production.

Since the outbreak of war between Israel and Hamas on October 7, 2023, the Kurdistan Region has experienced numerous drone strikes, including the recent drone attacks on two oil fields operated by U.S. companies, resulting in the loss of nearly 200,000 barrels of oil production. The KRG has blamed militias for the attacks.

Raad Alkadiri, Senior Associate in Energy Security and Climate Change at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, focused on the necessity of finding common ground between the Kurdistan Region and Baghdad. “If the KRG can sustain itself on its own resources, it potentially opens up political options for the future,” he stated. However, he cautioned that the KRG cannot rely solely on oil revenues, noting significant debt levels and financial challenges. He emphasized that natural gas from the Kurdistan Region could play a crucial role not only in supplying Iraq, but also in establishing the country as a regional hub. “Iraq is abundantly rich in resources, yet much of its potential remains untapped. Politics and security have long overshadowed the sector, but the reality is that Kurdistan can meet domestic demand and eventually become a key transit point for Europe and other markets. This represents an opportunity for both Kurdistan and Iraq as a whole,” he stated.

According to an analysis report published by School of International Service at American University in Washington D.C by Yerevan Saeed, Kurdistan’s gas reserves, totaling 25 trillion cubic feet, make up 20% of Iraq’s total. Current production is between 540 million and 680 million standard cubic feet per day, predominantly from the Khor Mor Field. With the KM250 project set to increase output to nearly 800 million cubic feet per day by the end of 2025 and the Chamchamal Gas Field adding 70 million cubic feet per day by late 2026, Kurdistan could exceed 1 billion cubic feet per day within the next 18 months. By 2027, the region aims to produce up to 1.5 billion cubic feet per day, reinforcing its role as a regional hub for gas and electricity.