The impending post-Assad era in Syria is likely to be complex and potentially perilous. While the fall of Assad’s regime may bring a sense of relief and a euphoria driven by newfound freedom, there are serious concerns about Syria’s future, its political trajectory, geopolitical dynamics, security, and the strategic direction of this post-colonial, war-torn state.
Historically, Syria has been ruled by either strict centralist or authoritarian rulers – most notably the Assads – who, along with sectarian divisions and foreign interventions, have shaped the country’s trajectory. The Assad regime’s brutal suppression of dissent, coupled with the devastating civil war, has left deep scars. These scars have crippled a regime that, arguably, employed some of the worst policies to manage its internal issues. As the interim government is formed and assumes control of two-thirds of the country, it must acknowledge these historical injustices, which could be crucial in fostering a unified national identity.
The interim cabinet, led exclusively by Sunni ministers under the leadership of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s (HTS) leader, Ahmad al-Sharaa, raises significant concerns about decentralization and inclusivity. Historically, dominant ethnic groups in the Middle East have struggled to relinquish centralized power. Arab nationalism, epitomized by the Assad regime, entrenched ethnocentric policies that marginalized minorities and denied their historical and demographic significance.
Syria’s opposition, particularly HTS, lacks democratic experience and appears indifferent to such matters. Their roots in groups like ISIS and Al-Nusra Front raise concerns that a Taliban-like regime could emerge. While these groups must align with international law and the protection of human rights and minorities, they have yet to demonstrate this will. In the post-Assad era, Syrians need to prioritize the celebration of democracy, building democratic institutions, holding free and fair elections, and safeguarding minority rights.
Regional interest: Turkiye’s Neo-Ottoman ambitions
Turkiye is keen on expanding its hegemony, exploiting Assad’s weakness, and competing with Iran, now facing Israel as a potential competitor in Syria. Israel has control over the Golan Heights, which underscores the fear of a power vacuum left behind by Assad’s army. Turkiye, with its enthusiasm for a Sunni state on its borders, seeks two objectives: the spread of its hegemony through a ‘Sunnistan’, and the suppression of Kurdish aspirations in Syria, preventing a de facto federal or autonomous region like the Kurdistan Region in Iraq.
The Kurdish-led Self-Administration in Northeast Syria, led by figures like Mazloum Abdi, has expressed readiness to cooperate with the interim government, but Turkiye’s heavy influence complicates negotiations. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s vision of reclaiming Turkiye’s former Ottoman territorial hegemony adds further tension to the situation.
Geopolitically, a power-vacuum typically invites external powers eager to fill it. Assad’s downfall, Iran’s defeat, Hezbollah’s weakening, and Russia’s potential withdrawal have created a vacuum and triggered fears of a resurgence of ISIS. The return of U.S. President Donald Trump to the White House could shift U.S. priorities and create further instability, with dire consequence for vulnerable and underrepresented minorities including the Kurds, Christians, and Alawites.
Iran’s waning influence is a shift of regional power dynamics to Turkiye, whose ambitions do not cease in Syria. The revival of the Ottoman Empire is far from over for President Erdogan and his ambitious followers and is spreading to Iraq and potentially every country where Sunnis are a majority, stopping only on Iran’s western borders.
Minorities and ISIS
A Sunni-dominated government in Syria could marginalize the country’s Kurdish, Christian, Alawite, Druze, and other minority communities. Additionally, Turkey’s influence will exacerbate sectarian divisions, just as Iranian intrusion did in Syria a decade ago. Protecting minority rights, promoting inclusivity, and ensuring representation are vital.
Here is where President Trump could play a vital life-saving role through pressuring regional powers and the interim Syrian government to protect minorities from the repetition of their traumatic past. Al-Sharaa, who was previously designated a terrorist by the United States and the West, appears to be in desperate need of international assistance but may lay low if regional interventions are prevented. However, the Middle East is most likely to repeat its past, and fears of a centralized post-Assad Syria are not unforeseen, a situation where minorities lack international guarantors.
Disillusioned youth, lacking in education and other opportunities, may fuel ISIS’s resurgence. Neglect, poverty, and ideological exploitation create fertile ground for groups like ISIS, as seen in Iraq in 2014. Addressing underlying issues, promoting inclusive education and interfaith dialogue can prevent ISIS’s revival – if it is not too little too late. These youths, consisting of Iraqis, Syrians and internationals, have had foreign parents killed or are being looked after by single mothers, while some are completely orphaned.
Reportedly, some 60,000 former ISIS fighters, and their families and children are kept within refugee camps, with 45,000 alone in al-Hawl on the Iraq-Syria border. These camps represent a potential breeding ground for extremism in the coming decades as many there are infused with hatred, neglect, war trauma, and marginalization, similar factors that led to the rise of ISIS in 2014. In Iraq, roughly 1.5 million Sunni Arabs are either in the Kurdistan Region or displaced in Sunni areas distant from their homes, with some holding out hope for a Sunni state. Their disillusionment is with the current power structure, which has seen them marginalized for more than 100 years starting with the imported Saudi kings under British and French colonialism.
International responsibility
The international community has a crucial role to play in helping democratize Syria without imposing a system that forcibly fuses the country’s different components together, a recipe that has proven disastrous. In neighboring Iraq, the central government rhetoric in Baghdad has made the so-called federal system impractical due to centralist aspirations by most Arab citizens in the post-colonial and post-Saddam country.
The UN, France, the United States, and other international actors should encourage the current Syrian government to be inclusive and truly embody citizenship and equality. More importantly, they should support the war-torn country through various processes, from establishing diplomatic missions to promoting constitutional reforms. More importantly, there is an urgent need for fostering inclusive education, interfaith dialogue, and national reconciliation to prevent further chaos. Other international organizations like the EU and Arab League can also play pivotal roles in promoting stability, protecting minority rights, and supporting democratic governance through their diplomatic missions and humanitarian aid.
Syria’s future is fragile and its path uncertain. With its lack of democratic experience, Syria’s reconstruction requires careful consideration of historical injustices, ethnic tensions, and geopolitical rivalries. Ignoring these complexities may perpetuate instability. It is difficult to foresee a bright future while its territorial integrity and sovereignty are at stake, let alone the risks of a forceful attempt to incorporate regions under the Kurdish-led SDF and other groups. There is need for much patience and a determination through the transitional period for the different parties to reach a consensus guaranteeing the protection of all ethnic and religious minorities, including their political and religious rights.
Syria’s future hinges on inclusive governance, constitutional reforms, and international support. Neglecting these challenges may plunge it into further chaos, adding to the destabilization of the entire region.
