As U.S. President-elect Donald Trump prepares his new administration for a return to the White House on January 20, 2025, following his election victory on November 5, 2024, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) is looking to expand its partnership with the United States.

On November 23, KRG Prime Minister Masrour Barzani expressed his optimism about a new administration during the 2024 Middle East Peace and Security Forum (MEPS 24).

“We have experience with the previous Trump administration,” Prime Minister Barzani said. “We are hoping that the new administration is going to maintain good relations with Iraq and especially with the Kurdistan Region, which has been a very credible partner to the United States in fighting against terrorism, promoting peace, and championing the values and principles that we share.”

However, he said it is too early to decide how the new administration will play out. “We have to wait until the whole cabinet is picked and decided, but we definitely have friends among the people who we hear are being considered for prominent roles in the next administration.”

“I would like to be optimistic,” he said about the future Trump administration.

Prime Minister Masrour Barzani meeting with U.S. Senators, Members of Congress, and other government officials during his visit to Washington D.C. (March 1, 2024).

Friends of the Kurds

The “friends” who Prime Minister Barzani referred to could potentially include Florida Senator Marco Rubio, Trump’s nominee for Secretary of State, and Florida Representative Michael Waltz, whom Trump is considering for the role of National Security Advisor.

In May 2016, Rubio met with Masrour Barzani, who was then serving as Security Council Advisor, and discussed U.S.-Kurdish bilateral relations. Then, on January 5, 2020, after the Iraqi Parliament called for the departure of U.S. forces from Iraq, Rubio ruminated on X, “maybe it’s time for a fully independent Kurdistan.”

Meanwhile, Waltz, a member of the Kurdish Caucus in the U.S. Congress, has recently signaled his support for the Kurds on several occasions, urging Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani to immediately resume Kurdish oil exports in June 2023 and strongly criticizing the treatment of the Iraqi Kurds by Baghdad in a letter to the Biden Administration in September 2023. In March 2024, along with other U.S. officials, he hosted Prime Minister Barzani during his visit to the United States.

Andrew Tabler, a Syria specialist at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy think-tank, who was senior adviser on U.S.-Syria policy during the Trump administration, told Kurdistan Chronicle that anyone who has participated in the war on terror, will see ”that Kurdistan is an ally of the United States. The peshmerga fought very bravely across the region with our [U.S.] special forces.”

Commenting on Waltz’s background in the special forces, Tabler added, “he’s going to be appreciative of that.”

Prime Minister Masrour Barzani (middle), U.S. Ambassador Alina Romanowski (right), and U.S. Consul General Steve Bitner (left) at the U.S. Independence Day ceremony in Erbil (November 4, 2024).

Policy uncertainty

However, Tabler underlined that it remains unclear exactly what the foreign policy of the incoming Trump administration will be towards the Kurds, noting that the United States will wind down its anti-ISIS coalition mission in Iraq by 2025 and transition towards a bilateral relation, which raises the question of what role the Kurdistan Region will play in the future.

“There are a diversity of views in the government and the incoming administration about how to craft a foreign policy. I think this administration is going to be an interesting mix of focusing on domestic politics but at the same time avoiding foreign policy entanglements.”

Dr. David Romano, a Thomas G. Strong Professor of Middle East Politics at Missouri State University in the United States, added that “no one is very certain about what the Trump administration’s policy towards the Kurds will be.

“I think some Kurds remain hopeful regarding Trump; however, he does not hesitate to break from past policies or standard operating procedures of the U.S. foreign policy establishment. While this could hurt Kurds, it could also benefit them if Trump abandons the U.S. preference for strong central governments in other states.”

Patricia M. Haslach, Former U.S. Ambassador to Ethiopia and Assistant Secretary of State, underlined in an interview with Kurdistan Chronicle that “there is a pretty strong relationship” between the United States and the Kurdistan Region and recommended that Baghdad should follow the Kurdish example and not back militias.

Avoiding conflict

Howard J. Shatz, a senior economist at U.S think-tank RAND and professor at the Pardee RAND Graduate School, noted that it is unclear whether the administration has a well-defined policy towards the Kurdistan Region.

“I think there’s a strong drive to avoid conflict and nurture peaceful relations that privilege strong commercial relations and business development. I think this is as far as anyone can predict, since policy is still being formulated. We will have to see who gets appointed to the key positions and take it from there.”

In a post on X made on November 23, Prime Minister Barzani underlined that Iraq should stay out of the conflict in the Middle East.

“I hope that there will be peaceful solutions to every ongoing conflict. However that’s achieved, I believe it will serve the people of those countries that are suffering from the ongoing wars now,” Prime Minister Barzani said at MEPS 24. “We have to wait and see, but in any case, we do believe that peace is going to be better than war.”

Rich Outzen, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council in Turkiye who was a member of the U.S. State Department’s Policy Planning Staff during Trump’s presidency from 2016 to 2018, told Kurdistan Chronicle that the organizing principle of the second Trump Administration in the Middle East will be clarity about taking care of the United States’ friends and allies.

Moreover, he argued that a new Trump administration will deter “those who have committed themselves to reversing the U.S.-led security order in the region.”

“The KRI (Kurdistan Region of Iraq) has a long-standing history of being the most democratic force in Iraq and of supporting our network of regional allies. The Trump foreign policy team will be good for friends of the United States in the region: Israel, Turkey, the KRI, and our Gulf allies. It will force a recalculation by those counting on U.S. disinterest in the region, especially in Tehran.”

Wladimir van Wilgenburg is a seasoned reporter and analyst who specializes in Kurdish affairs, and holds a Master’s degree in Kurdish studies from Exeter University, UK.